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{"sheet":"Contents","index":0,"n_rows":15,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":15,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[]
[null,null,"Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries"]
[]
[]
[]
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[null,"A Model of the Impact of Social Distancing on the Spread of a Communicable Virus"]
[]
[null,"This spreadsheet contains a simple \"SIR\" model that demonstrates how social distancing could decelerate the transmission of a communicable virus."]
[null,"This is a stylized model that is intended solely for illustrative purposes.  This is not a \"real\" model based on COVID-19 data or data for any other virus."]
[null,"The model's default assumptions are not intended to reflect actual, real-world rates of transmission or lethality. Rather, the assumptions were invented for illustrative purposes."]
[null,"The model assumes that immunity is conferred to those who become infected."]
[null,"Note that the model is deterministic rather than stochastic."]
[]
[null,"Note that you must press \"Enable Content\" when this model opens. Otherwise, the VBA code that underpins the model will not be able to run."]

{"sheet":"Model","index":1,"n_rows":346,"n_cols":20,"rows_kept":346,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[9,1,9,2],[9,3,9,4],[9,5,9,6]]}
[null,"Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (\"SIR\") Model of an Epidemic"]
[]
[]
[]
[null,300,"Days per simulation",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Results at End of Simulation Horizon"]
[null,1,"Produce output every N days",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Case 1","Case 2","Case 3"]
[null,1,"On graph: 1 = total population, 2 = young population, 3 = old population",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Recovered",0.91282285898379467,0.90307141128578805,0.80746954174867214]
[null,1,"On graph: maximum y-axis value to display",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Susceptible",7.795670256834282E-2,8.7803133834558289E-2,0.18410638867860352]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Infected",5.7370095202236016E-9,3.5216382738290086E-6,2.678117594111934E-4]
[null,"Case 1",null,"Case 2",null,"Case 3",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Deceased",9.2204327108537446E-3,9.1219332413805775E-3,8.1562578133132866E-3]
[null,"Low Risk","High Risk","Low Risk","High Risk","Low Risk","High Risk",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Table reflects the population selected in cell B7"]
[null,1,0,1,0,1,0,"At time zero: distribution of population (low risk + high risk = 100%)"]
[null,10,null,10,null,10,null,"At time zero: number of persons infected out of 1 million"]
[null,0.01,null,0.01,null,0.01,null,"Probability of catching the virus if an uninfected person comes into contact with an infected person"]
[null,10,null,10,null,10,null,"Average duration of infection, in days (the model assumes that an individual is infectious throughout this period)"]
[null,0.01,null,0.01,null,0.01,null,"Probability that infection ends in death"]
[null,30,null,30,null,30,null,"Average number of person-to-person contacts each day: without social distancing adjustments"]
[null,30,null,15,null,15,null,"Average number of person-to-person contacts each day: with social distancing adjustments"]
[null,30,null,30,null,50,null,"Number of days (since time zero) until action is taken via the social distancing parameters shown on line 18"]
[null,100,null,90,null,90,null,"Total number of days during which social distancing policy will be enforced (after which we return to the social distancing parameters on row 17)"]
[]
[]
[null,"Simulation Results",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Recovered","Susceptible","Infected","Deceased"]
[]
[]
[null,"CASE 1",null,null,null,null,null,null,"CASE 2",null,null,null,null,null,null,"CASE 3"]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[null,null,"Deceased","Infected","Suscept","Recov",null,null,null,"Deceased","Infected","Suscept","Recov",null,null,null,"Deceased","Infected","Suscept","Recov"]
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